Predicting Divorce – What Matters, What Doesn’t?

A couple of months ago we wrote about a marriage calculator that calculates the odds of getting divorced.

Now some researchers from the Australian National University have studied almost 2500 couples to identify factors that tend to correlate to divorce. The report is titled “What’s Love Got To Do With It?”

Yes, but how to predict whether it will last?

Some of the factors are obviously intuitive. People tend to divorce more when:

  1. They have already been married before.
  2. Their own parents have been divorced and/or separated.
  3. They have troubled finances.

But many of these factors are intriguing, even surprising. Divorce is more common where:

  1. The husband is either more than 8 years older than his wife or is less than 25 years old when he marries.
  2. The wife wants children much more than the husband does.
  3. One of the spouses already has children before getting married.
  4. The husband is unemployed.
  5. One spouse smokes and the other does not.
If he doesn't smoke, they may not stay together.  But if he does, will they both just get cancer together?

What doesn’t correlate one way or the other to divorce? How many kids a couple has, how long each person has been employed before marriage, and the wife’s employment status after marriage.  Read the whole report here.

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